August 14, 2009

Mafia Wars Lotto Collection; Strategy Guide

Since some of you have been asking, the Lotto collection gives "+10% to job loot drops" as its reward. I would assume this is an additive bonus rather than multiplicative.

In other words, if an item had a 30% drop rate, it now has a 40% drop rate. This might sound great at first, but the odds of winning a piece are very slim, let alone collecting the whole set. You would have to trade for the set & contend with scammers. The problem pieces for the set go for anywhere from 50 to 100+ TNT/guerrilla squads/other high-end items.

So good luck collecting a set! Unless they make it more accessible, it just does not seem to be worth it to me.
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48 comments:

  1. Yeah that's pretty weak for how long it's going to take most people to collect all 7 items.

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  2. They are going for 250+ high end loot....mac

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  3. I have 6 out of the seven items. I is very hard to get I have spent hundreds of Godfather points on lotto tickets. You guys are right they need to make getting the pieces a lot easier.

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  4. i have submitted my ticket almost daily and have not yet gotten a single piece. I wonder what percent of players have actully gotten a piece, not to mention vaulted the collection.

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  5. true it's close to impossible to win a lotto item. the odds are just too great.

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  6. This lotto colections suck...damn..

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  7. how the fuck do i do the lotto, it doesn't show up on my mafia wars.

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  8. what is the boost for vaulting the lotto collection?

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  9. I shit my bed sometimes. Will this collection help me make it to the toilet?

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  10. I have played the lotto every day for 45 days and have not won the first lotto pc either

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  11. i have always won in the loot even if i only submitted 1 ticket. But never had won a collection item

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  12. Right now, lotto is VERY expensive. I just vaulted it the other day and this blog is correct- be CAREFUL about scammers. Use a middle man or work with a group called "trusted traders."

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  13. I have a bingo card if anyone is interested...

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  14. Is the lotto collection needed to complete the new achievement badge of vaulting all NY and Cuba collections? If so is there any talk of making the pieces more accessible? Also, not sure how "trading" works.

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  15. some players in my army is offering 1000+ off the highste lvl moscow items for just 1 lottery item!! i wish i hade one!!!

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  16. I got 380 track loaders for my lotto Deck of cards

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  17. I have a "Lotto Machine", got lucky last month and won a piece of the collection. Been playing lotto every single day on 4 characters >.<. It SUCKS!!

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  18. I think the best strategy is to set up a bunch of accounts. Enter the daily chance in all of them. It will reduce the time it takes to get lotto pieces,

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  19. i got 2 shoes in 1 week . . now after a couple of trades . . I only need 2 more pcs.

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  20. damn, its very useful ! I average around 15 loots per day . . now I get 24 5/6 moscow loots a day in 1 account

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  21. "damn, its very useful ! I average around 15 loots per day . . now I get 24 5/6 moscow loots a day in 1 account

    NOVEMBER 5, 2009 1:42 AM"

    whats your energy count like, for that account?

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  22. So I played the lotto in mafia wars and it picked the winning numbers in the real lotto!!! I'm quiting playing PC games and I'm gonna Travel the world with the $42,000,000.00 I won!!!

    Thanks Mafia Wars

    _/\o/\_

    ~pfttt

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  23. It's so weird, I never won any of the items but I have two. A few weeks ago I logged on and I had an item. Just last week, I logged on, and I got another one. Maybe I'll just keep getting them eventually?

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  24. Bullshit u won the lotto in real life...

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  25. I've been playing lotto on 4 accounts and only have a Bingo card on one. I didn't win it, one day I logged in ans I had it--not sure if somebody sent it or where it came from.

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  26. Well guys wtf, did they made it easier to get or im just lucky? im playing mafia wars with 2 accounts and this week i got Craps Table and Dice... Yet i had submitted 2 tickets on my other account and 3 on my other... Am i just lucky? :)

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  27. I got my first item after playing lotto daily for 8 months. Guess that shows the odds.

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  28. Do you know if the collection adds the same bonus on winning loots from fights? Otherwise, energy accounts get the most out of it, but those of us who are fighting-oriented, wouldn't get much from it.

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  29. For anyone interested in what the odds are in the lotto: if the lotto is really random, the chances are

    5 matching numbers 1/12103014
    4 matching numbers 1/37240
    3 matching numbers 1/581.88
    2 matching numbers 1/27.708
    1 matching number 1/3.5753
    no matching numbers 1/1.4653

    So, on average, one would need to buy 582 tickets to find one daily chance collection item. Now, another thing is the fact that you need different items. One can calculate that on average, you'd need 18 daily chance collection items, to have 7 different ones... Thank god for trading ;-) But still, even then you'd need on average 7*582 = 4074 lottery tickets. That's more than 11 years off using free tickets every day, or 8148 reward points. My advice: don't go for it ;-)

    (want some more numbers? 1 in every 14 million players who used a total of 200 tickets will have obtained 7 daily chance collection items)

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  30. Eh? The math in this last comment is totally off. The chance of correctly matching 3 out of 5 numbers from 1 to 60 is:

    1/60 × 1/59 × 1/58 = 1/205320 divided by 6!(factorial) to account for the fact you can choose them in a random order. Which equals:

    1 in 34,220

    So, one ticket has a 1 in 34,220 chance to win a collection item. For a drawing once/week we can divide this by 7 which gives us a 1 in 4889 chance per week of winning a collection item from free tickets.

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  31. I've been playing since January and have only received the wheel. I traded it for EO's

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  32. Lotto Sucks now. i now have 4 out of seven pieces, 3 of which i got for free through raffles for trading sites that have free entries for inviting your friends. The other, the baccarat shoe, i just got an amazing trade, my Orloff diamond that i paid 90 Viks and 40 Lloyds for that shoe. Shoes go for over 280 HEML/BL. Now, you talked about 50-100 TNT/Guierra Squads? now, more like 3000 TNT/GS.

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  33. Dealing My 3 Bingo, 2 Decks, 2 Dice, 1 Wheel, 1 Slot, 2 Table, 2 Shoe

    mails an Brandst├Ątter Horst (Facebook)

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  34. after 2 years, I'm still stuck with 1 out of 7 :D

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  35. I am the same person who talked about my Orloff diamond-shoe trade. Like i said, it costed about 280 HEML/BL one month ago. It has now over doubled that amount. I just sold that shoe for over 800 HEL. I rebought it for 600. And shoes are now least expensive thanks to that glitch. Yay.

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  36. Ive been playing for six months. Ive completed every job possible with the exception of the final Paris Challenge and the upcoming levels 6 and 7 in Bangkok. Level 754, 1100 Mafia, 2540 energy, 755 stamina, 3562657 experience, ive vaulted everything except the diamond collection (need 2 more) and I dont have any fricken lotto pieces to speak of. How messed up is that??

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  37. same here... been playing the lotto everyday for over a year... got my first item (the deck of cards) last week... so with that rate, it´ll take like 10-15 years to complete the collection----- wich is a whole lot of bullshit from zyngas side...;) Dont go for it... not worth the trouble

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  38. I been playing about 6 months now, got the slot machine last week, week before that i got craps table, i been on a roll but i also submit atleast 15 tickets a week aswell, so now i got 4 out of 7 items just hope i dont get anymore DUPES (2 craps tables so far)

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  39. To "anonymous" on 27 march: I was the one who posted the 'math' of march 21.

    My calculations where not off, yours are! The chances are much bigger than you claim, even though there are actually 70 numbers in the lottery, not 60 as you used. You're example was for 3 out of 5 numbers matching numbers. However, when calculating your chances, you don't take into account that the lottery drows FIVE balls and there are also 5 numbers you select on your ticket! (you only take in into account for the number of possible combinations...) If you do it properly, only three balls of your set of 5 have to match only 3 balls of the set of 5 of the draw. So, here is the way to do it: we see the 5 numbers on the lottery ticket as "fixed" (which they are, they were filled in by you before the draw). Chances that the first three balls in the draw match your ticket and the last two dont are obviously (5/70)*(4/69)*(3/68)*(65/67)*(64/66). You are right in noting that, order doesn't matter: it doesn't need to be the first three balls that are correct. Note however that whatever the order, you're numerator always contains 65*54*5*4*3, and your denominator always 70*69*68*67*66 (try it, or simply use reason to convince yourself that there the chances should be the same for each combination). So, for every order, chances are the same. There are 10 ways to draw 3 balls out of 5. (In general, to choose k objects out of n, there are n!/(k!*(n-k)!) possible combinations.) So, we multiply the chance by the number of combinations (5/70)*(4/69)*(3/68)*(65/67)*(64/66)*10 = 1/581.88, exactly as I claimed before.
    All my other numbers are thus also correct, for they are calculated in the same way. Note also that, apart from small roundoff error, chances for all different possibilities (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 matches) neatly add up to 1 if you calculate it my way. Your way, this definely wouldn't have been the case if you would have at least calculated the chance of 0 matches correctly (which is the most obvious and simple calculation 65*64*63*62*61/(70*69*68*67*66)=1/1.4653 ).

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  40. On June 6, 2010 in the afternoon, i noticed a huge rush of Lotto Sets being offered for sale. 1000% increase than usual. A cloning script was created by someone and sold for $200 to numerous people. Dont know how many. I havent really seen anything that confirmed any of this and havent seen any confirmations that Zynga will be rolling back to eliminate the clones.
    I do believe that there has been a breach because I started trading 2 months ago, and I watch the boards for 5 different trading sites. All of a sudden it goes from maybe 1 lotto set or lotto piece offered out of 6 trades, to 4 out of 6 trades are lotto. How do you know if your buying a fake or genuine lotto? I also see that people are trying to keep the prices up but panic and fear is pushing the prices downwards.

    Can anyne confirm if Zynga will take any actions? I heard that Lotto cloning has happened 2xs prior, but in this situation, were talking about cloning any piece through WL. I also heard new Lotto will be out when Vegas opens, so IMO, why would Zynga do anything?

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  41. I just got given the whole damn collection..and guess what? I'm not vaulting it! I wanna stare at it's beauty, knowing how rare a gift this is :)

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  42. if you wanna have the collection so badly just buy it from the top of this page... at buymafia... its there on sale for 25 US $

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  43. If I wanted to bake pancakes, Would I have to drug the spoon with a broom cord?

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  44. ‘Playlottoworld.com’s knows our worry concerning ticket ownership to claim. We need not to worry about it. Each of its courier’s sign a contract which describes the nature of our lottery ticket purchases, and establishes the ownership of tickets, as well as the chain of custody of every lottery ticket we buy.

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  45. Hey guys!
    How I can win this lottery?
    Monday lotto results
    Please give me understanding of how I can do it. Thanks!

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